What will be the new forms of mobility in 2030?
By 2030, 6 out of 10 people will live in a metropolis, according to the report “An Integrated Perspective on the Future of MobilityDirected by Bloomberg and McKinsey. As a direct consequence of this growing urbanization, the population density within cities should increase by nearly 30% within 15 years, with all that this implies in terms of new mobility needs.
The authors of the study looked at three major emerging models that are changing the way we travel, namely ecological and shared transport, autonomous vehicles, and transport on demand. By 2030, 500 million people in the world could be affected by these new forms of mobility that are emerging.
8 times more electric vehicles sold in 5 years
Unsurprisingly, the first major trend identified by the study’s authors relates to the growing adoption of electric vehicles around the world.
In the space of five years, the number of electric vehicles sold has thus multiplied by 8.6, reaching 448,000 units sold in 2015. And with the observed drop in the prices of electric batteries (-65% since 2010) , the trend is expected to continue in the years to come. In terms of markets, 41% of electric vehicles were sold in Europe, 27% in North America, and 25% in China.
As proof of the growing interest in these new modes of transport, investments in these so-called “ride-hailing” companies more than doubled between 2014 and 2015, going from 5.3 billion to 11.3 billion dollars. And the trend continues in 2016, with more than $ 20 billion invested in the first half. By 2030, almost half of the journeys made globally will be using shared vehicles, according to the study.
The first autonomous vehicles marketed in 2018
Beyond these two changes affecting consumption habits, the study’s authors believe that the development of autonomous vehicles is also a major trend in transport. What might have looked like science fiction a short time ago could quickly become part of our daily lives. The authors of the study estimate that the first fully autonomous vehicles could be available for sale in less than ten years.
The most advanced car manufacturers on the subject, for their part, expect to market their first products in the coming years: in 2018 for Tesla, in 2020 for Nissan or even Daimler. These first vehicles will integrate autonomous modules, but will not be completely autonomous if we are to believe the authors of the study.
The autonomous shared vehicle, the future of public transport
The prospects offered by autonomous vehicles are such that the authors of the study believe that, combined with shared mobility solutions, they can compete directly with private vehicles as well as with public transport networks.
And for good reason, the shared use of an autonomous electric vehicle would reduce the cost of transport per kilometer by 30 to 60% compared to a private vehicle. And by 2020, the cost of shared use of an autonomous vehicle will join that of public transport, according to expert estimates.
From a global perspective, these new mobility solutions are expected to translate into city-wide savings of $ 30-45 billion by 2030.
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