[DECODE] AI: between chaos and progress
“We will have the destiny that we have deserved”– Albert Einstein
I’m going to talk to you about AI, not from the point of view of the geek who marvels at his Google Home or watches his car drive alone, but rather from the point of view of its impact on the real life of real people. people. This is only a reflection of my own convictions. Of course, a conviction is not a forecast … or almost.
The AI revolution in 3 distinct stages:
1 / The robot’s mastery of adaptability.
This represents the first level of the injection of artificial intelligence into production structures with a high human workforce. Why is textiles made in low labor countries?
Why do we still find workers on the assembly lines of cars or telephones?
In fact, there is still this little element of unpredictability, each piece of fabric needs to be aligned, turned over, adjusted, checked and correctly presented to the machine. Likewise in an assembly line or small operations, adjustments, all those little things that require collaboration between the eye, the gesture and the decision in real time.
Today, man dominates this part on the machine.
Tomorrow and thanks to the dazzling progress in the fields of shape recognition, motor precision, the ability to “touch”, the robot will be able to do these tasks and will then raise the question of replacing these millions of workers by a unit. robotic. She will also do well from day one and will do better and better over time thanks to her ability to “learn”. Today, each worker gradually develops this experience but remains the sole owner, this is called know-how.
Tomorrow, each robotic unit will provide all the other robots with its “lived experience”, its “experience”, its errors. And so, this huge database of experience will bring a huge leap forward in terms of productivity.
2 / The robot’s mastery of persuasion.
Everyone has come across a good car salesperson, sofa salesperson, or appliance salesperson at some point in their life. Not to mention of course telemarketers, those who act on your decision by simply talking to you without even seeing you. Their ability to persuade you to buy the product is extraordinary. They have this strength to listen to you, gauge your emotions, argue and build a story that will ultimately convince you.
In fact, each individual is different, but the emotions that go into making a decision are the same.
Today’s technology makes it possible to recognize your voice, to understand what you are saying without really knowing yourself (Siri, Alexa, Google Home, etc.).
A polygraph (or lie detector) needs to know your body signals (heartbeat, sweating, etc.) to determine if you are lying.
Tomorrow, the machine will know how to capture these factors in your voice, nervousness, stress, excitement, joy, pleasure and thus collect this precious data allowing it to adapt to you and to argue with you. The machine will control the exchange and convince you just as well as the telemarketer today. Logically, you won’t even be able to tell if a human or a robot is on the phone. He will recognize your accent, will adapt his accordingly to immediately fit into your circle of confidence.
This persuasion ability will be the second stage of the AI rocket. What will become of these hundreds of thousands of operators, telemarketers, after-sales technicians, etc.
3 / The robot’s mastery of creativity and innovation– the final stage of the AI revolution will take place the day a machine will be able to create, innovate, design.
Until then, the machine will need man to be designed, programmed, imagined.
Then, it will no longer have to rely on man other than to move around, settle in, provide raw materials.
The question of the time scale
If everyone agrees today that man adapts and has always adapted to change, many people miss the essential element: the time factor. Man adapts to all situations as long as this gradual transformation gives him time to do so. This time, we estimate it has 2 generations.
60 years ago, sputnik was the first satellite sent into space. Then followed a series of evolutions which gradually brought men to live in space for months. If we look at the innovation curve in practice, we can only be dizzy in the face of this acceleration:
When were the first SpaceX rockets to return home?
The first computer capable of beating the Go Man?
Man needs this time to adapt just as the dog of 30 years ago would be unable to cross the street today without being run over for sure.
This time factor, we no longer have it. Everything is happening at accelerated speed before our eyes and soon, robotic intelligence will be everywhere.
The whole planet is mobilizing against global warming, the harbinger of enormous climatic upheavals.
But who is mobilizing to explain, control and prepare for technological warming with the future effects that are much more visible in our everyday life?
Make no mistake: the arrival of intelligent robots is a tremendous opportunity for humanity. It is not a question of stopping it but it is a question of supporting it in its integration with the populations, and for the moment, it is clear that all the governments are just beginning to raise the first pages of the file.
Govern with this revolution
To govern is to foresee. In reality, governments have long ceased to apply this adage when it comes to technology and their first instinct is to ban it.
Look at the progressive ban on crypto currencies (Bitcoin), the restriction of flight zones in the face of the massive arrival of recreational drones, the ban on autonomous vehicles from circulating on Californian roads, the ban on fracking to extract natural resources.
In reality, things are moving too fast for government machinery, legislators, politicians. Finally, the reflex to prohibit, to limit, to restrain is rather a positive sign of reactivity for a government. This is a sign that he is listening to upheavals without however having the capacity to accompany them, at least initially.
The rapid evolution of AI is going to result in a significant increase in mass unemployment. In this order, the populations with low level of qualification, the millions of operators in developing countries, will be primarily affected. The question will arise of the very existence of these factories in these countries since everything will be automated. Decisions will be made on the basis of the cost of electricity, the distance between the product and its market, in short, the cost of labor will be negligible.
This unemployed workforce will have to take care of and will be a factor of political instability if it is not channeled. The entertainment and video game sectors will experience significant growth.
The impossible reconversion of certain categories
Can we convert a worker into an engineer? As it stands, Elon Musk just like researchers … do not think so and this is how Elon Musk invested large sums in a startup developing a chip which, once inserted into your brain, will boost your IQ.
Training must transform
A study by the World Economic Forum states that 65% of children currently in elementary school will have a job that does not yet exist.
- What it means
- How to prepare
- What to teach
Logical and analogical thinking to develop in children.
The roadmap for politicians and citizens
The race against time is on. Governments prohibit what they do not master or have not had time to master (example: crypto currencies, drones, fracking, etc.)
Slow down innovation to better control its impact on societies. Here is what seems to be the line to follow. Slowing down does not mean prohibiting but rather better targeting funding to startups and directing these resources towards projects that take into account the human impact in their development process.
The machine never replaces the human contact that is dear to us and this is the reason why this last must be preserved, restored, amplified.
Investor and CTO at MUZEEK